a word about delays

this is not an actual archetype, but it can be said that a delay in a balancing loop almost always causes some problems, especially in a #limitstogrowth situation. #overshoot is the best example for that. and everything can be a delay. a stock is a delay in itself. a flow can and often has delays. delays are probably the thing i have the most respect of in a system.

K-selected species have slower reproduction & longer generation times, their responses to changes in population size are delayed, which creates lower-amplitude, slower oscillations in their populations.

they are selected for by evolution regarding resource use, hence K-selected.

humans like other big mammals once were a K-selected species, even when elon musk is flying around with his jet having 3 million kids - we still are.

#overshoot
#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

#systemsdynamics-wise there are 2 different types of species:

r-selected species like small mammals have rapid reproduction & short generation times, so they respond quickly to environmental changes. they produce many offspring, so they face overshooting K often, leading to high-amplitude, rapid oscillations in their population stocks, especially when delayed responses are present.

they are selected for by reproduction rates, hence r-selected.

#overshoot
#systemsthinking
@systemsthinking

for the sake of simplicity here is some jargon from biology that is used in the population dynamics context all the time:

the amount of possible individuals available resources of a certain environment can sustain is called carrying capacity or K.

the, temporary or not, uptick in population in the fluctuation caused by delayed balancing feedbacks is called #overshoot.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

however, there can be a delay between the time when the population reaches a relatively high density & the time when resources become limiting enough to significantly affect birth and death rates. this delay in the feedback mechanism can cause the population stock to temporarily "#overshoot" the amount of possible individuals available resources can sustain. that results in a temporary die-off and starts a boom-and-bust cycle of oscillations.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

delays, system oscillation & #overshoot

(this is where the tea begins)

in population dynamics, negative feedbacks are responsible for regulating population's stock in response to resources availability. delays in that response can lead to oscillations in population stock over time. system oscillations are a characteristic of balancing feedbacks in which the information regulating the goal-seeking action is delayed.

#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking

so: if growing the economy to an infinite size doesn't make humans happy, then what does?

and that is where all hope lies. when enough people start to ask themselves that critical question.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#sustainability
#resilience

as the old greeks knew there's hope at the bottom of pandora's box. so here is my hope:

we are trashing the planet. nature once gave us plenty and the last 3 generations of westerners took it all. we are trashing ourselves and others in the process. work a 8-5 to buy shit that intoxicates us, both physically and mentally.

but it doesn't make us happy, right? doesn't make us happy. are you happy right now?

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#sustainability
#resilience

i am sorry to confront people with all of this. this is all a kind of information with you should consume with great caution. i have seen people going genuinely insane over it. but no problem or predicament can be a addressed or responded to without being understood.

so i hope i find some people who are willing to think about this with me.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience

this graph is especially frightening. if you know #systemsdynamics, here's a question for you: with all the data and insight we currently have on all our systems, the energy/economy relation - which kind of systems dynamics, which dominant feedback produces such a graph?

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience

and now comes the hardest-to-accept part, even i am struggling a lot with it, and maybe we should. the only plan we have is about climate change, and it all comes back to the decoupling while growing the economy, of which we do currently NOT KNOW if it is even possible on a planet-scale. IF we for whatever reason magically solve that - the next limit approaches.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience

you remember these #climatestripes, someone has done the same thing for biodiversity & the worlds freshwater and that sums up our entire situation pretty comprehensively.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience

it is important to note that it is always that most scarce resource which sets the limiting factor for a species growth. in the case of humans it currently looks like this is our atmosphere's ability to take up greenhouse gases. climate change will diminish the carrying capacity of the planet, substantially. but if if we solved that one - there would be other limiting factors, hence CC is a merely the worst symptom.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#sustainability

some smart folks in the 70s ran the numbers on all of it through a systems dynamics computer model. the limits to growth report. forester, the meadows.

the 1st graph is the result which has been seen as most likely.

2. some other runs of the model

3. a re-calibration of the model run on modern computer system im 2023

4. the model vs. actual statistical data.

we are right on track.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience

what we, western civilization, to be precise, has been doing is to overshoot so many vital ecosystems so much that we are permanently damaging vital structures beyond repair. that is what i mean when i talk about tipping points, it is not just the climate. once these vital structures are gone the system will tip into a different state and all of that is why overshoot is hard to understand and measure.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience